Canada Section 232 at 50%: scenario estimates for 1 January 2027
St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade / Global Trade Alert, 25 August 2026

Files
  aetr_by_state.csv              Trade-weighted average applied US tariff (excl. HTSUS Chapter 98) for Canada and for all US
                                 imports under three states: base (1 Jan 2027 baseline), A (50% with USMCA relief inside
                                 Section 232 kept), B (50% with that relief cancelled). Columns hts, s232, s301, s338, other
                                 are the instrument contributions in percentage points and sum to `rate`.
  canada_buckets.csv             The same by Section 232 bucket for Canada: 2024 imports ($bn), statutory and effective
                                 Section 232 rates today and under A and B, implied extra duty ($bn) at 2024 volumes.
  canada_inscope_flows.csv       The 932 Canadian HS-8 lines in scope: 2024 imports (USD), MFN rate, USMCA compliance
                                 share, statutory and effective Section 232 and the applied rate under each state.
  origin_panel.csv               Applied rate by origin under each state (only Canada and the all-origins aggregate move).
  sensitivity_full_usmca_loss.csv  Scenario B against a variant that also removes the USMCA preferential tariff rate.
  canada_s232_50pct_methodology_note.pdf  The six-page explainer with the assumptions, tables and caveats.

Basis: SGEPT US tariff model, policy date 1 January 2027, statutory HTS rates with preference weighting,
USITC 2024 imports at HS-8 as weights, no behavioural response. The product scope is read from the
President's post of 24 August 2026 as the existing Section 232 actions on automobiles, auto parts,
medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and steel; the statute that would carry the increase is not known.
