# Claims to sources — firm-specific tariff policy blog

Every empirical claim in `post.md` resolved to its source. Status values follow
`structured-uncertainty.md`.

| Claim | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|
| UAS proclamation signed 13 Aug 2026; tariffs from 3 Sept 2026 | UAS proclamation, clause (1) | answered |
| 100% on larger drones, thermal-imaging drones, docking stations, certain components | UAS clause (1)(a), Annex I | answered |
| 25% on drones of 25kg or less | UAS clause (1)(b), Annex II | answered |
| Further component list at 25% from 9 Feb 2027 | UAS clause (2); operative text preferred over Annex IV's "February 9, 2026" per `SOURCE_OF_TRUTH.md` | answered |
| 15% ceiling for EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, Liechtenstein; 10% UK | UAS clause (4) | answered |
| Ceilings conditional on importer certification of component/technology origin | UAS clause (4) | answered |
| Approved onshoring plan permits duty-free import of covered products and equipment, in volumes commensurate with anticipated output, during construction | UAS clause (6)(c) | answered |
| Construction must be committed to begin before 20 Jan 2029 | UAS clause (6)(a) | answered |
| Five-month deferral for firms on the three lists | UAS clause (7); 3 Sept 2026 → 9 Feb 2027 | answered |
| Eligibility fixed by list contents on 2 Sept 2026 | UAS clause (7) | answered |
| 123 distinct companies across the three lists on 14 Aug 2026 | Blue UAS Cleared List (44) + Blue UAS Framework (69), 6 overlapping = 107; plus 17 FCC UAS conditional approvals, 1 overlapping (Mobilicom) = 123 | answered |
| Pharma ratified 13 company-specific agreements, earliest 19 Dec 2025 | Pharma clause (2), Annex II | answered |
| 17 named firms took the new rates from 31 July 2026 rather than 29 Sept 2026 | Pharma clause (4), Annex III | answered |
| Pharma 20% with approved plan, 100% otherwise, zero with an MFN pricing agreement | Pharma clauses (3)(a), (3)(b), (3)(e) | answered |
| Pharma zero rate ends 20 Jan 2029; 20% becomes 100% on 2 April 2030 | Pharma clauses (3)(e), (3)(b) | answered |
| Aluminium: any company may apply; approval buys imports at half the S232 rate | Aluminium clause (1)(a), (1)(c) | answered |
| Polysilicon: "company-specific deals with producers" | Polysilicon paragraph 12 | answered |
| Polysilicon: full waiver on covered products and equipment | Polysilicon clause (6)(c) | answered |
| FCC Covered List bars foreign UAS from equipment authorisation since Dec 2025, exempting Blue lists and DoW/DHS Conditional Approvals | FCC Covered List, UAS entry, dated 22 Dec 2025, as updated 28 July 2026 | answered |
| Conditional Approval turns on an onshoring commitment | FCC Covered List footnote; FCC National Security Determination of 21 July 2026 | answered |
| UAS proclamation aligns its requirements with the FCC application | UAS clause (6)(d) | answered |
| Routers: 17 companies hold conditional approvals | FCC Covered List, Routers Conditional Approvals table, as at 28 July 2026 | answered |
| Power inverters and advanced robotic devices added 28 July 2026 | FCC Covered List entries dated 28 July 2026 | answered |
| S232 covers $975bn of 2024 imports today | `results/260814-260814-boe24/`, scope-flag union, 2024 base | answered |
| S232 covers $1,283bn (39.6%) from 9 Feb 2027 | `results/260814-270209-boe24/`; total imports $3,239.9bn | answered |
| Four company-deal programmes cover $389bn | pharma 262.0 + aluminium 62.9 + UAS 45.6 + polysilicon 18.1 = 388.6 | answered |
| Autos and heavy vehicles $618bn; steel $241bn | same run, mutually exclusive sector assignment | answered |
| Autos and steel run 2025-vintage offset schemes | Proclamation 10908 (autos, Apr 2025) import adjustment offset; Proclamation 10984 (Oct 2025) clause 13 steel/aluminium tariff adjustments | answered |
| Proclamations require approval criteria to be published, not the approvals | Pharma clause (6) requires FR publication of criteria; no clause in any of the four requires publication of approvals | answered |

## Deliberately excluded

- **Modelled value of the UAS firm deferral.** `data/firm_exemptions.csv` carries
  per-code shares with status `inferred` and ranges as wide as 0.039–0.471
  (JCC-4346). No reader-facing figure is drawn from it.
- **UAS trade value in the body.** The $45.6bn in the chart is the gross value of
  the annex tariff lines; the model's coverage-share-weighted figure is $18.5bn.
  The caveat is stated in the method note rather than quoting either number in prose.
